Q2 2026 · Edition 38 · Independent

SEE
FURTHER.
INVEST
BETTER.

Global macro research written for investors who understand that perspective beats prediction. We study where capital flows before consensus does. No noise. No agenda. Just the view from higher ground.

S&P 500 YTD
−4.6%
▼ Tariff shock
Gold
$3,245
▲ All-time high
DXY
99.1
▼ 3-year low
Fed Rate
4.25%
— Hold
Emerging Markets
India's Capital Markets: The Decade Ahead
Commodities
Copper Deficit Is Not Priced In — Yet
Fixed Income
IG Credit at 145bps: Value or Trap?
ESG Alpha
Green Bonds: Separating Signal From Noise
S&P 500
5,248
▼ −1.57% today
Gold Spot
$3,245
▲ +1.21% today
EUR/USD
1.0891
▲ +0.34%
Brent Crude
$64.80
▲ +0.52%
10Y UST
4.42%
▼ −4bps
VIX
29.65
▲ Elevated
01 Analysis Full archive →
01
Global Macro · Deep Dive

Tariff Regime Change: How to Position a Multi-Asset Portfolio When Trade Becomes Geopolitics

The 2025–2026 tariff escalation is not a temporary negotiating tactic. It is the first salvo in a multi-decade restructuring of global trade architecture. We model the winners, the losers, and the portfolio tilts that best capture the transition — across equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies.

Dr. Sophie Laurent | Apr 13, 2026 | 19 min
Read the analysis
Emerging Markets

India's Middle Class, Capital Markets, and the 2030 Opportunity

A systematic look at the structural drivers of Indian equity premium and the access vehicles that make sense for non-resident investors.

R. Pillai|11 min
Energy Transition

Grid Infrastructure: The $4 Trillion Decade That Nobody Is Talking About

AI data centres and EV adoption have a common chokepoint: the grid. The capex required to upgrade it creates a generational investment opportunity hiding in plain sight.

K. Osei|9 min
Credit

High Yield at 385bps: Reading Default Risk Through the Noise

Spreads price neither recession nor recovery cleanly. We decompose the signal from five default-prediction models and find the market is too complacent on duration risk.

T. Nakamura|8 min
ESG Research

The Alpha in ESG Is Not Where You Think It Is

Social and governance factors, not environmental, have historically driven the outperformance attributed to ESG strategies. We disaggregate the returns across 22 years of data.

Apr 9, 2026|10 min
Asia Pacific

Japan's Corporate Governance Revolution Is Real — and Still Underpriced

Three years into the TSE reform programme, buybacks and ROE improvement have been structural, not cosmetic. Foreign investors remain significantly underweight despite the evidence.

Apr 7, 2026|12 min
Macro Strategy

The Structural Bear Case for 60/40 in a Positive-Correlation World

When inflation is the primary risk driver, equities and bonds move together — eliminating the diversification benefit at the exact moment you need it. We examine alternatives empirically.

Apr 5, 2026|11 min
"

The wise investor does not predict the future. He studies the present with exceptional honesty, positions for the most probable outcomes, and ensures the portfolio survives the ones he did not foresee.

VantagePoint Editorial — Q2 2026
02 Reviews All reviews →
// Buy
Vanguard LifeStrategy 80%
Multi-Asset · Passive · Global

The benchmark all other multi-asset products must justify themselves against. Auto-rebalancing, genuine global diversification, and a 0.22% OCF. For investors who want a reliable core holding that removes behavioural drag, this is the starting point. Recommended without reservation for 5+ year horizons.

OCF0.22%
5Y Return+47.2%
Sharpe0.81
// Caution
iShares MSCI World ETF
Global Equity · Passive · Index

Sound product, misleading label. At 72% US weighting, this is a levered US equity position with international decoration. From a global macro perspective, genuine diversification requires supplementing with EM, Japan ex-hedged, or explicit non-US mandates. Worth holding; wrong to call it "the world."

OCF0.20%
US Weight72%
5Y Return+61%
// Avoid
ARKK Innovation ETF
Thematic Active · US Disruptive

The narrative of technological disruption is accurate. The implementation is not suited to the macro environment. A 75% peak drawdown, concentrated in pre-profit names, with structural exposure to rate sensitivity — these are not temporary problems. The reflexive retail-flow dynamic remains unresolved in 2026. Seek the thesis elsewhere.

Fee0.75%
5Y Return−18.4%
Peak DD−75%
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